The Nomination Period lasted from 1 January to 8 January. Over 5000 valid ballots were received.
The following characters advance to the Preliminary Round.
The following characters advance to the Preliminary Round.
Nova Division
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Stella Division
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ISML 2012: Nomination Period Results
ISML 2011: Red-Letter Day for Lelouch Lamperouge
ISML 2011: Red-Letter Day for Lelouch Lamperouge
By JR Salazar (Bongaboi)
December 26, 2011
The 2011 Lapis Scepter, given to the winner of the 2011 International Saimoe League Male Tournament, goes to Code Geass's very own Lelouch Lamperouge.
Lamperouge won the Scepter after defeating Hideyoshi Kinoshita 2155-2076.
"I have to thank, first and foremost, C.C. for being the flagship moekko that she is," Lamperouge said at a victory luncheon in Tokyo. "Without C.C., Code Geass would lack any relevance whatsoever. But there are so many others I would also like to thank on my campaign team. There are too many to count.
"I accept this scepter as a symbol of my hard work as the star of Code Geass and wish the contestants who will participate in the 2012 International Saimoe League all the best."
In the third-place magtch, Gintoki Sakata defeated Keima Katsuragi 2161-1997. Kyon was fifth after routing Izaya Orihara 2546-1616. Edward Elric was seventh after burning past Tomoya Okazaki 2214-1937. Accelerator finished ninth after defeating Koyomi Araragi 2241-1714 and Yuzuru Otonashi was 11th after defeating Kakashi Hatake 2468-1672.
There were a number of other exhibitions that took place.
While Homura Akemi did win the 2011 Anizone Best Moe Tournament, she will have some work to do if she is to qualify for the 2012 International Saimoe League after dropping an exhibition to Ruri Gokou to the tune of 2130-1870. Astarotte Ygvar did well to finish in the top eight of the 2channel Anime Saimoe Tournament, but a 1856-1514 defeat to Kyouko Toshinou might probe problematic when the preliminaries officially take place in January.
In other exhibition results, Hideki Hinata routed Naoi Ayato 2352-1334, Youichi Hiruma crushed Kou Kitamura 1857-876, Keehi Mihael defeated Trancy Alois 1767-1581 and Terumi Afuro cruised past Ichirouta Kazemaru 1523-836.
With this, the 2011 International Saimoe League season is officially over, and the nomination period for the 2012 season will be in the works next month. Stay tuned to the Bedlam on Baltic Avenue and bongaboi.deviantart.com for continuing coverage of the International Saimoe League.
ISML 2011: Results, Male Tournament Match Day 9
1
Kinoshita Hideyoshi
(Baka to Test to Shōkanjū) 2076
Lelouch Lamperouge
(Code Geass) 2155
2
Sakata Gintoki
(Gintama) 2161
Katsuragi Keima
(Kami nomi zo Shiru Sekai) 1997
3
Kyon
(Suzumiya Haruhi no Yūutsu) 2546
Orihara Izaya
(Durarara!!) 1616
4
Okazaki Tomoya
(CLANNAD) 1937
Edward Elric
(Fullmetal Alchemist) 2214
5
Accelerator
(Toaru Majutsu no Index) 2241
Araragi Koyomi
(Bakemonogatari) 1714
6
Hatake Kakashi
(NARUTO) 1672
Otonashi Yuzuru
(Angel Beats!) 2468
7
Hinata Hideki
(Angel Beats!) 2352
Naoi Ayato
(Angel Beats!) 1334
8
Hiruma Yōichi
(Eyeshield 21) 1857
Kitamura Kō
(Cross Game) 876
9
Alois Trancy
(Kuroshitsuji) 1581
Mihael Keehl
(Death Note) 1767
10
Akemi Homura
(Puella Magi Madoka ☆ Magica) 1870
Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko)
(Ore no Imōto) 2130
11
Toshinō Kyōko
(YuruYuri) 1856
Astarotte Ygvar
(Astarotte no Omocha!) 1514
12
Afuro Terumi
(Inazuma Eleven) 1523
Kazemaru Ichirōta
(Inazuma Eleven) 836
Write-up forthcoming.
BoBA 2011 ISML Predictions: Male Tournament, Match Day 9
CHAMPIONSHIP MATCH:
ARENA 01: Kinoshita Hideyoshi [Lelouch Lamperouge] by >=1200
Over/Under: 4000
Over
3rd Place Match:
ARENA 02: Sakata Gintoki [Katsuragi Keima] by >=1200
Over/Under: 4000
Over
5th Place Match:
ARENA 03: [Kyon] Orihara Izaya by >=1200
Over/Under: 4000
Over
7th Place Match:
ARENA 04: [Okazaki Tomoya] Edward Elric by >=1200
Over/Under: 4000
Over
9th Place Match:
ARENA 05: Accelerator [Araragi Koyomi] by >=1200
Over/Under: 4000
Over
11th Place Match:
ARENA 06: Hatake Kakashi [Otonashi Yuzuru] by >=1600
Over/Under: 4500
Under
ARENA 07: [Hinata Hideki] Naoi Ayato by >=1200
Over/Under: 4000
Over
ARENA 08: [Hiruma Yōichi] Kitamura Kō by >=1200
Over/Under: 4000
Over
ARENA 09: [Alois Trancy] Mihael Keehl by >=1200
Over/Under: 4000
Over
ARENA 10: [Akemi Homura] Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) by >=1800
Over/Under: 7000
Under
ARENA 11: Toshinō Kyōko [Astarotte Ygvar] by >=1000
Over/Under: 6000
Under
ARENA 12: Afuro Terumi [Kazemaru Ichirōta] by >=800
Over/Under: 3000
Under
ARENA 01: Kinoshita Hideyoshi [Lelouch Lamperouge] by >=1200
Over/Under: 4000
Over
3rd Place Match:
ARENA 02: Sakata Gintoki [Katsuragi Keima] by >=1200
Over/Under: 4000
Over
5th Place Match:
ARENA 03: [Kyon] Orihara Izaya by >=1200
Over/Under: 4000
Over
7th Place Match:
ARENA 04: [Okazaki Tomoya] Edward Elric by >=1200
Over/Under: 4000
Over
9th Place Match:
ARENA 05: Accelerator [Araragi Koyomi] by >=1200
Over/Under: 4000
Over
11th Place Match:
ARENA 06: Hatake Kakashi [Otonashi Yuzuru] by >=1600
Over/Under: 4500
Under
ARENA 07: [Hinata Hideki] Naoi Ayato by >=1200
Over/Under: 4000
Over
ARENA 08: [Hiruma Yōichi] Kitamura Kō by >=1200
Over/Under: 4000
Over
ARENA 09: [Alois Trancy] Mihael Keehl by >=1200
Over/Under: 4000
Over
ARENA 10: [Akemi Homura] Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) by >=1800
Over/Under: 7000
Under
ARENA 11: Toshinō Kyōko [Astarotte Ygvar] by >=1000
Over/Under: 6000
Under
ARENA 12: Afuro Terumi [Kazemaru Ichirōta] by >=800
Over/Under: 3000
Under
ISML 2011: Results, Male Tournament Match Day 8
1
Kinoshita Hideyoshi
(Baka to Test to Shōkanjū) 2381
Katsuragi Keima
(Kami nomi zo Shiru Sekai) 2216
2
Sakata Gintoki
(Gintama) 2211
Lelouch Lamperouge
(Code Geass) 2525
3
Otonashi Yuzuru
(Angel Beats!) 2180
Kyon
(Suzumiya Haruhi no Yūutsu) 2523
4
Orihara Izaya
(Durarara!!) 2279
Araragi Koyomi
(Bakemonogatari) 2188
5
Archer
(Fate/stay night) 2060
Roy Mustang
(Fullmetal Alchemist) 2528
6
Sebastian Michaelis
(Kuroshitsuji) 1988
Hibari Kyōya
(Katekyō Hitman Reborn!) 2264
7
Shinomiya Ayase
(Guilty Crown) 2310
Uryū Minene
(Mirai Nikki) 1782
8
Rokujō Miharu
(Nabari no Ō) 2190
Takuto Kira
(Full Moon wo Sagashite) 1383
9
Aoyagi Ritsuka
(Loveless) 1905
Shindō Shūichi
(Gravitation) 1329
10
Aizawa Yūichi
(Kanon) 1652
Sunohara Yōhei
(CLANNAD) 2447
11
Afuro Terumi
(Inazuma Eleven) 1769
Kiyama Hiroto
(Inazuma Eleven) 1038
12
Fubuki Shirō
(Inazuma Eleven) 1232
Kazemaru Ichirōta
(Inazuma Eleven) 1540
BoBA 2011 ISML Predictions: Male Tournament, Match Day 8
ARENA 01: [Kinoshita Hideyoshi] Katsuragi Keima by >=1000
Over/Under: 3000
Over
ARENA 02: Sakata Gintoki [Lelouch Lamperouge] by >=1000
Over/Under: 3000
Over
ARENA 03: Otonashi Yuzuru [Kyon] by >=1000
Over/Under: 3000
Over
ARENA 04: [Orihara Izaya] Araragi Koyomi by >=1000
Over/Under: 3000
Over
ARENA 05: [Archer] Roy Mustang by >=1000
Over/Under: 3000
Over
ARENA 06: [Sebastian Michaelis] Hibari Kyōya by >=1000
Over/Under: 3000
Over
ARENA 07: [Shinomiya Ayase] Uryū Minene by >=1500
Over/Under: 4000
Over
ARENA 08: Rokujō Miharu [Takuto Kira] by >=1000
Over/Under: 3000
Over
ARENA 09: Aoyagi Ritsuka [Shindō Shūichi] by >=1000
Over/Under: 3000
Over
ARENA 10: Aizawa Yūichi [Sunohara Yōhei] by >=1000
Over/Under: 3000
Over
ARENA 11: [Afuro Terumi] Kiyama Hiroto by >=1000
Over/Under: 2000
UNder
ARENA 12: Fubuki Shirō [Kazemaru Ichirōta] by >=1000
Over/Under: 3000
Under
Over/Under: 3000
Over
ARENA 02: Sakata Gintoki [Lelouch Lamperouge] by >=1000
Over/Under: 3000
Over
ARENA 03: Otonashi Yuzuru [Kyon] by >=1000
Over/Under: 3000
Over
ARENA 04: [Orihara Izaya] Araragi Koyomi by >=1000
Over/Under: 3000
Over
ARENA 05: [Archer] Roy Mustang by >=1000
Over/Under: 3000
Over
ARENA 06: [Sebastian Michaelis] Hibari Kyōya by >=1000
Over/Under: 3000
Over
ARENA 07: [Shinomiya Ayase] Uryū Minene by >=1500
Over/Under: 4000
Over
ARENA 08: Rokujō Miharu [Takuto Kira] by >=1000
Over/Under: 3000
Over
ARENA 09: Aoyagi Ritsuka [Shindō Shūichi] by >=1000
Over/Under: 3000
Over
ARENA 10: Aizawa Yūichi [Sunohara Yōhei] by >=1000
Over/Under: 3000
Over
ARENA 11: [Afuro Terumi] Kiyama Hiroto by >=1000
Over/Under: 2000
UNder
ARENA 12: Fubuki Shirō [Kazemaru Ichirōta] by >=1000
Over/Under: 3000
Under
ISML 2011: Results, Male Tournament Match Day 7
1
Sakata Gintoki
(Gintama) 2696
Orihara Izaya
(Durarara!!) 1835
2
Otonashi Yuzuru
(Angel Beats!) 2096
Lelouch Lamperouge
(Code Geass) 2658
3
Okazaki Tomoya
(CLANNAD) 2600
Hatake Kakashi
(NARUTO) 2076
4
Edward Elric
(Fullmetal Alchemist) 2427
Accelerator
(Toaru Majutsu no Index) 2318
5
Roy Mustang
(Fullmetal Alchemist) 2582
Sebastian Michaelis
(Kuroshitsuji) 1988
6
Mikazuki Yozora
(Boku wa Tomodachi ga Sukunai) 1725
Hasegawa Kobato
(Boku wa Tomodachi ga Sukunai) 2549
7
Inui Sana
(Mashiroiro Symphony) 1514
Amaha Miu
(Mashiroiro Symphony) 2181
8
Hakurei Reimu
(Tōhō Project) 1418
Hatsune Miku
(VOCALOID) 3244
9
Negi Springfield
(Mahō Sensei Negima!) 1997
Hyūga Natsume
(Gakuen Alice) 1756
10
Hotori Tadase
(Shugo Chara!) 1712
Haninozuka Mitsukuni
(Ōran High School Host Club) 2129
11
Fubuki Shirō
(Inazuma Eleven) 1658
Tsurugi Kyōsuke
(Inazuma Eleven) 1051
12
Kazemaru Ichirōta
(Inazuma Eleven) 1609
Gōenji Shūya
(Inazuma Eleven) 1114
BoBA 2011 ISML Predictions: Male Tournament, Match Day 7
ARENA 01: Sakata Gintoki [Orihara Izaya] by >=1000
Over/Under: 4500
Over
ARENA 02: Otonashi Yuzuru [Lelouch Lamperouge] by >=1000
Over/Under: 4500
Over
ARENA 03: [Okazaki Tomoya] Hatake Kakashi by >=1000
Over/Under: 4500
Over
ARENA 04: [Edward Elric] Accelerator by >=1000
Over/Under: 4500
Over
ARENA 05: Roy Mustang [Sebastian Michaelis] by >=1000
Over/Under: 4500
Over
SPECIAL MATCHES:
ARENA 06: Mikazuki Yozora [Hasegawa Kobato] by >=1500
Over/Under: 5000
Over
ARENA 07: Inui Sana [Amaha Miu] by >=1200
Over/Under: 4700
Over
ARENA 08: [Hakurei Reimu] Hatsune Miku by <=1500
Over/Under: 5900
Over
ARENA 09: [Negi Springfield] Hyūga Natsume by >=1000
Over/Under: 4500
Over
ARENA 10: Hotori Tadase [Haninozuka Mitsukuni] by >=1000
Over/Under: 4500
Over
ARENA 11: [Fubuki Shirō] Tsurugi Kyōsuke by >=1000
Over/Under: 5000
Under
ARENA 12: [Kazemaru Ichirōta] Gōenji Shūya by >=1000
Over/Under: 5000
Under
Over/Under: 4500
Over
ARENA 02: Otonashi Yuzuru [Lelouch Lamperouge] by >=1000
Over/Under: 4500
Over
ARENA 03: [Okazaki Tomoya] Hatake Kakashi by >=1000
Over/Under: 4500
Over
ARENA 04: [Edward Elric] Accelerator by >=1000
Over/Under: 4500
Over
ARENA 05: Roy Mustang [Sebastian Michaelis] by >=1000
Over/Under: 4500
Over
SPECIAL MATCHES:
ARENA 06: Mikazuki Yozora [Hasegawa Kobato] by >=1500
Over/Under: 5000
Over
ARENA 07: Inui Sana [Amaha Miu] by >=1200
Over/Under: 4700
Over
ARENA 08: [Hakurei Reimu] Hatsune Miku by <=1500
Over/Under: 5900
Over
ARENA 09: [Negi Springfield] Hyūga Natsume by >=1000
Over/Under: 4500
Over
ARENA 10: Hotori Tadase [Haninozuka Mitsukuni] by >=1000
Over/Under: 4500
Over
ARENA 11: [Fubuki Shirō] Tsurugi Kyōsuke by >=1000
Over/Under: 5000
Under
ARENA 12: [Kazemaru Ichirōta] Gōenji Shūya by >=1000
Over/Under: 5000
Under
ISML 2011: Results, Male Tournament, Match Day 6
1
Kinoshita Hideyoshi
(Baka to Test to Shōkanjū) 2425
Edward Elric
(Fullmetal Alchemist) 1842
2
Okazaki Tomoya
(CLANNAD) 1953
Katsuragi Keima
(Kami nomi zo Shiru Sekai) 2152
3
Sebastian Michaelis
(Kuroshitsuji) 1848
Hatake Kakashi
(NARUTO) 2150
4
Accelerator
(Toaru Majutsu no Index) 2328
Roy Mustang
(Fullmetal Alchemist) 1867
5
Archer
(Fate/stay night) 2233
Hibari Kyōya
(Katekyō Hitman Reborn!) 1831
6
Sōma Hatsuharu
(Fruits Basket) 1642
Ōtori Kyōya
(Ōran High School Host Club) 1691
7
Kamijō Tōma
(Toaru Majutsu no Index) 2539
Okabe Rintarō
(Steins;Gate) 1446
8
Saten Ruiko
(Toaru Majutsu no Index) 2258
Shionji Yūko (Alice)
(Kami-sama no Memochō) 1775
9
Afuro Terumi
(Inazuma Eleven) 1804
Kirino Ranmaru
(Inazuma Eleven) 726
10
Kiyama Hiroto
(Inazuma Eleven) 1820
Kidō Yūto
(Inazuma Eleven) 615
Kim Jong-Il is DEAD.
After Kim Jong-il's death, what next for the people of North Korea?
State media said leader died of a heart attack on a train, and swiftly hailed his third son, Kim Jong-un, as the 'great successor'
North Koreans lament the death of Kim Jong-il, who state media said died on Saturday of ‘overwork’. Photograph: Kyodo News/AP
They howled and whimpered and scrubbed raw eyes with fists. They flailed their arms in grief and marched in their thousands to the capital's landmarks. But no one, outside of North Korea, really knows what North Koreans felt at news of Kim Jong-il's death.
There was shock, of course. Some perhaps wept from sorrow for their Dear Leader, some from sorrow for themselves. Some cried for fear that inadequate public anguish might damn them, and some from anxiety about what lay ahead. Kim veiled his country throughout his life and uncertainty shrouded his death.
State media said he died at 8.30am on Saturday, felled by a heart attack "due to physical and mental overwork", as he travelled by train on one of his innumerable inspection visits. There had been not a whisper of anything unusual in the two days before the announcement.
The official news agency KCNA swiftly hailed his third son, Kim Jong-un, as the "great successor" and "the eminent leader of the military and the party". The young man, thought to be just 28, has been groomed as heir since his father's apparent stroke in 2008.
The 69-year-old left his son a nuclear-armed but impoverished country where food is scarce and human rights abuses rife, and his unexpected death sent a chill far beyond the 24 million inhabitants of North Korea. Politicians in Washington, Seoul, Tokyo and beyond weighed the prospects of a third generation of this communist dynasty with the risk of regional instability. Concerns were underscored by South Korean media reports on Monday that the North had fired short-range missiles, although the Yonhap news agency said the tests had been conducted before the death announcement. The defence ministry in Seoul did not comment.
The South's military was already on high alert, while a spokesman for the Japanese prime minister said he had set up a crisis management team.
Officials in the Obama administration, due to hold talks with the North this week and rumoured to be pondering an aid-for-disarmament deal, said it was closely monitoring developments. The UK foreign secretary, William Hague, said in a statement it was a difficult time for the North Korean people, but could prove a turning point. He urged the country to take steps towards the resumption of the stalled six-party denuclearisation talks.
It was left to China, the North's chief ally, to lament Kim's passing. "We feel incomparably anguished, and offer our deepest condolences to the entire North Korean people," the top leaders said in a statement. They described Kim as a great leader and close friend of China, adding that they were sure the Korean people would unify under his son's leadership.
It was a rare encomium. In the wider world Kim was mocked as much as reviled. That is hardly surprising: the claims of his propaganda machine grew ever more extravagant over the years. But those who dismissed him – as a crazed and erratic nuke-toting maverick; as a "pygmy" (George Bush's word); as a pompadoured, platform-shoed buffoon, in the image by Team America perhaps most widely disseminated – underestimated the man.
By turning his failing country into a nuclear state, he reinforced its pariah status, but wielded an influence he could never have otherwise achieved. There was logic in the threats to turn Seoul to ashes, as there was in the shelling and missile launches and nuclear tests. "He left the country with the ultimate deterrent. He ensured it won't be Iraq and won't be Libya," said John Delury, a professor at Yonsei University in South Korea, on Monday.
Behind the oversized, tinted glasses "was a man of some skill", said James Hoare, the former British charge d'affaires in Pyongyang. Foreigners who negotiated with him thought him sharp and knowledgeable, good at mastering briefs, but willing to refer to aides when necessary.
"He was competing in a hostile world and his solution might not be yours or mine, but his country is still there and the elite has survived – which is really what they are concerned with," said Hoare.
The clownish image was still less fair to the people he ruled with an iron grip. Observers have called the country the world's only Stalinist theme park, but there was nothing entertaining about it. Around 200,000 North Koreans are believed to be in prison camps thanks to the system of collective punishment.
Kenneth Roth, executive director of Human Rights Watch, described the country as "a human rights hell on Earth". "Kim Jong-il ruled through fear generated by systematic and pervasive human rights abuses including arbitrary executions, torture, forced labour and strict limits on freedom of speech and association," he said in a statement.
North Korea has long dismissed such criticisms as the jealous and destructive lies of capitalist aggressors. But experts say even its vast propaganda and state security apparatus has struggled to counter increasing domestic cynicism about the regime, which has proved incapable of meeting its people's basic needs. While Kim enjoyed sipping cognac and dining on sushi, his country has struggled with food shortages since the devastating famine of the 1990s, in which hundreds of thousands of people died.
"When the history of North Korea is written I think [his time] is going to be a pretty dark chapter," said Delury. "It was doing well in the 50s; it was starting to have problems in the 1970s, but not totally; it was grinding down in the 80s before the end of the socialist block. Then right after Kim Il-sung dies, it goes into freefall. You go from the paternal rule of Kim Il-sung to famine in the space of a couple of years. "To some extent it was the cards handed him … [But] in the end that's going to be his legacy."
Kim's efforts to transform foreign relations did better. Yet dramatic improvements in dealings with the South, the US and Japan were soon reversed by his own decisions and those of foreign leaders.
In North Korea's media, of course, there was only gratitude and sorrow. "It is the biggest loss for the party … our people and the nation's biggest sadness," a tearful, black-clad anchorwoman told viewers as she announced Kim's death on television. "At this moment of greatest sorrow and grief, people feel as if the sky is falling down. The hearts of all of them are now filled with stronger faith in victory, optimism and solemn pledge," KCNA said.
Footage showed anguished citizens hammering at pavements in Pyongyang; sobbing schoolchildren marshalled into public view; soldiers falling to their knees with undiluted grief. "When I see the videos I certainly don't believe in the first image of a total outpouring of grief. But nor do I believe that it is totally an act and they want to overthrow the government," said Delury.
Associated Press reported that people in the streets of Pyongyang began crying when they learned of Kim's death. Staff at the Koryo hotel, which usually accommodates foreigners, were in tears. In Beijing, waitresses at a North Korean restaurant wept hysterically and fled the room on learning the news.
Korea specialist Dr Leonid Petrov, of the University of Sydney, said that while many North Koreans would be genuinely distraught, "it will not be as dramatic as it was in 1994 when Kim Il-sung died … political cynicism is growing." He predicted a long and "extremely convenient" state of mourning. Kim's death comes days before the beginning of 2012, which the regime has long heralded as a year of glory. "[Now] they don't need to honour the promise that North Korea will become a strong, powerful and prosperous state … The population will be required to work hard for long hours with very few celebrations of Kim Il-sung's centenary," Petrov added.
KCNA said Kim Jong-il's bier would rest at the Kumsusan Memorial Palace in Pyongyang – where his father's embalmed body is displayed – before the funeral on 28 December. A national memorial service the following day, ending the official mourning period, will be marked with the firing of guns, the sounding of sirens and a three-minute silence.
But already the transition of power has begun. "The Korean people have suffered the great loss," KCNA said on its website, "but are decisively rising up as they have Kim Jong-un, great successor to the revolutionary cause … prominent leader of the party and the army and people [of North Korea] who is standing in the vanguard of the Korean revolution. He is another great person produced by Korea who is identical to Kim Jong-il."
While the Dear Leader was groomed for well over a decade before his succession, Kim Jong-un's elevation has been far more abrupt. "I think the North has done quite a bit to accelerate the succession process," said Daniel Pinkston of the International Crisis Group. "So I think at least in the short term they will coalesce around the next generation of leadership and watch and see whether his son will be able to consolidate power."
The official death notice stressed that Kim Jong-il had continued his father's legacy, and his son would do the same. That reflected the country's Confucian culture, but also the extent to which the regime still bases its authority on Kim Il-sung's. The country's founder remains "eternal president" 17 years after his death.
"Kim Jong-un's leadership provides a sure guarantee for creditably carrying to completion the revolutionary cause … started by Kim Il-sung and led by Kim Jong-il to victory," said the notice.
The Dear Leader did not wield the same power as his father, essentially ruling with the army, and experts predict that Kim Jong-un's authority will be even more contingent on the actions of the military and political elite. His aunt and her husband – who, like the "young general", were promoted last year – are expected to be key. Some wonder if his uncle is a potential challenger; others see him as a protector.
Prof Jennifer Lind, an expert on the regime at Dartmouth College, noted: "We don't know anything about how people in North Korea – the political and military elites – think about [Kim]. There is always a chance of unhappy people who might contest his succession.
"But that same group of people are going to be pretty afraid of unleashing any chaos or instability that might lead to collapse and reunification – which they would pretty much equate with a death sentence for themselves."
While some warned the new leader might sabre-rattle to help establish himself, Petrov said Pyongyang could instead seek to engage with the international community. "They will try to use it to resume negotiations with the US, saying there is a new leader so why not go and talk," he predicted.
In the short term, the country is shutting down even further. Foreign delegations will not be accepted during the mourning period. "Come back next year," said staff at the Beijing embassy, when asked if visas were available.
Any hopes that Kim's death could spark grassroots political change are wildly optimistic. There is no civil society and communications are tightly monitored. Instead, groups with contacts in Pyongyang said they were expecting an even greater clampdown on communications.
"We're expecting some form of lockdown on communications and travel in the immediate period as North Korean authorities move to stabilise the situation and prepare for mourning," said Geoffrey See, managing director at Chosun Exchange, a Singapore-based non-profit group that promotes academic exchanges with North Korea.
The Daily NK, an online news service that monitors North Korea from Seoul, said the regime had moved quickly to stifle potential unrest, including the closure of markets and the imposition of a curfew in Musan, a city in North Hamkyung province near the border with China. It quoted sources as saying that local workers and party officials were ordering residents not to leave their homes, adding that security agencies had posted agents on the streets and in alleyways "to control civilian movements".
"Not even children are allowed to go out," one source said.
Kim's sudden death, it added, had caught people by surprise. "Nobody had the slightest idea about [his] death even right before they saw the broadcast," another source said. "You can hear the sound of wailing outside."
BoBA ISML 2011 Predictions: Male Tournament, Match Day 6
ARENA 01: [Kinoshita Hideyoshi] Edward Elric by >=900
Over/Under: 4000
Over
ARENA 02: Okazaki Tomoya [Katsuragi Keima] by >=900
Over/Under: 4000
Over
ARENA 03: [Sebastian Michaelis] Hatake Kakashi by >=900
Over/Under: 4000
Over
ARENA 04: [Accelerator] Roy Mustang by >=900
Over/Under: 4000
Over
ARENA 05: Archer [Hibari Kyōya] by >=900
Over/Under: 4000
Over
ARENA 06: Sōma Hatsuharu [Ōtori Kyōya] by >=900
Over/Under: 4000
Over
ARENA 07: [Kamijō Tōma] Okabe Rintarō by >=900
Over/Under: 4000
Over
ARENA 08: [Saten Ruiko] Shionji Yūko (Alice) by >=1900
Over/Under: 5000
Over
ARENA 09: Afuro Terumi [Kirino Ranmaru] by >=900
Over/Under: 3000
Over
ARENA 10: [Kiyama Hiroto] Kidō Yūto by >=900
Over/Under: 3500
Under
Over/Under: 4000
Over
ARENA 02: Okazaki Tomoya [Katsuragi Keima] by >=900
Over/Under: 4000
Over
ARENA 03: [Sebastian Michaelis] Hatake Kakashi by >=900
Over/Under: 4000
Over
ARENA 04: [Accelerator] Roy Mustang by >=900
Over/Under: 4000
Over
ARENA 05: Archer [Hibari Kyōya] by >=900
Over/Under: 4000
Over
ARENA 06: Sōma Hatsuharu [Ōtori Kyōya] by >=900
Over/Under: 4000
Over
ARENA 07: [Kamijō Tōma] Okabe Rintarō by >=900
Over/Under: 4000
Over
ARENA 08: [Saten Ruiko] Shionji Yūko (Alice) by >=1900
Over/Under: 5000
Over
ARENA 09: Afuro Terumi [Kirino Ranmaru] by >=900
Over/Under: 3000
Over
ARENA 10: [Kiyama Hiroto] Kidō Yūto by >=900
Over/Under: 3500
Under
ISML 2011: Results, Male Tournament, Match Day 5
1
Sakata Gintoki
(Gintama) 2798
Hatake Kakashi
(NARUTO) 1913
2
Orihara Izaya
(Durarara!!) 2517
Sebastian Michaelis
(Kuroshitsuji) 1986
3
Otonashi Yuzuru
(Angel Beats!) 2497
Roy Mustang
(Fullmetal Alchemist) 2306
4
Accelerator
(Toaru Majutsu no Index) 2018
Lelouch Lamperouge
(Code Geass) 2817
5
Kyon
(Suzumiya Haruhi no Yūutsu) 2843
Hibari Kyōya
(Katekyō Hitman Reborn!) 2009
6
Araragi Koyomi
(Bakemonogatari) 2338
Archer
(Fate/stay night) 2285
7
Sanya V. Litvyak
(Strike Witches) 1606
Chaos
(Sora no Otoshimono) 2360
8
Dark Mousy
(D.N.Angel) 2498
Chrono
(Chrono Crusade) 1232
9
Chiba Mamoru
(Bishōjo Senshi Sailormoon) 747
Kuroba Kaito
(Detective Conan) 3583
10
Akagi Shigeru
(Akagi) 608
Shindō Hikaru
(Hikaru no Go) 3225
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